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Case Builder Model |
Îê |
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Conservative Case -
Operating Assumtions |
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Projected
Fiscal Year Ending |
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(in USD 000s, except otherwise stated) |
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Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-14 |
Mar-15 |
Jun-15 |
Sep-15 |
Dec-15 |
Mar-16 |
Jun-16 |
Sep-16 |
Dec-16 |
Mar-17 |
Jun-17 |
Sep-17 |
Dec-17 |
Mar-18 |
Jun-18 |
Sep-18 |
Dec-18 |
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Volume |
000s |
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800.0 |
802.0 |
804.0 |
806.0 |
808.0 |
810.1 |
812.1 |
814.1 |
816.1 |
818.2 |
820.2 |
822.3 |
824.3 |
826.4 |
828.5 |
830.5 |
832.6 |
834.7 |
836.8 |
838.9 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% per annum |
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1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
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Average Price |
USD |
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55.0 |
55.3 |
55.6 |
55.8 |
56.1 |
56.4 |
56.7 |
57.0 |
57.2 |
57.5 |
57.8 |
58.1 |
58.4 |
58.7 |
59.0 |
59.3 |
59.6 |
59.9 |
60.2 |
60.5 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% per annum |
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2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
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Revenues |
USD 000s |
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44 000.0 |
44 330.6 |
44 663.6 |
44 999.1 |
45 337.2 |
45 677.8 |
46 020.9 |
46 366.7 |
46 715.0 |
47 065.9 |
47 419.5 |
47 775.8 |
48 134.7 |
48 496.3 |
48 860.6 |
49 227.7 |
49 597.5 |
49 970.1 |
50 345.5 |
50 723.7 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% per annum |
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3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
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COGS |
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Raw Materials |
USD 000s |
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12 000.0 |
13 299.2 |
13 399.1 |
13 499.7 |
13 601.2 |
13 703.3 |
13 806.3 |
13 910.0 |
14 014.5 |
14 119.8 |
14 225.9 |
14 332.7 |
14 440.4 |
14 548.9 |
14 658.2 |
14 768.3 |
14 879.2 |
14 991.0 |
15 103.6 |
15 217.1 |
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Raw Materials / Revenue |
% |
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27.3% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
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Personnel |
USD 000s |
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9 000.0 |
8 866.1 |
8 932.7 |
8 999.8 |
9 067.4 |
9 135.6 |
9 204.2 |
9 273.3 |
9 343.0 |
9 413.2 |
9 483.9 |
9 555.2 |
9 626.9 |
9 699.3 |
9 772.1 |
9 845.5 |
9 919.5 |
9 994.0 |
10 069.1 |
10 144.7 |
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Personnel / Revenue |
% |
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20.5% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
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Fuel & Utilities |
USD 000s |
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2 000.0 |
1 994.9 |
2 009.9 |
2 025.0 |
2 040.2 |
2 055.5 |
2 070.9 |
2 086.5 |
2 102.2 |
2 118.0 |
2 133.9 |
2 149.9 |
2 166.1 |
2 182.3 |
2 198.7 |
2 215.2 |
2 231.9 |
2 248.7 |
2 265.5 |
2 282.6 |
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Fuel & Utilities / Revenue |
% |
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4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
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Leases |
USD 000s |
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1 000.0 |
886.6 |
893.3 |
900.0 |
906.7 |
913.6 |
920.4 |
927.3 |
934.3 |
941.3 |
948.4 |
955.5 |
962.7 |
969.9 |
977.2 |
984.6 |
991.9 |
999.4 |
1 006.9 |
1 014.5 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% per annum |
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2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
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Total COGS |
USD 000s |
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24 000.0 |
25 046.8 |
25 234.9 |
25 424.5 |
25 615.5 |
25 807.9 |
26 001.8 |
26 197.2 |
26 394.0 |
26 592.3 |
26 792.0 |
26 993.3 |
27 196.1 |
27 400.4 |
27 606.2 |
27 813.6 |
28 022.6 |
28 233.1 |
28 445.2 |
28 658.9 |
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Product Gross Margin |
USD 000s |
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20 000.0 |
19 283.8 |
19 428.7 |
19 574.6 |
19 721.7 |
19 869.8 |
20 019.1 |
20 169.5 |
20 321.0 |
20 473.7 |
20 627.5 |
20 782.5 |
20 938.6 |
21 095.9 |
21 254.4 |
21 414.0 |
21 574.9 |
21 737.0 |
21 900.3 |
22 064.8 |
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Gross Margin |
% |
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45.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
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Central Costs &
Overheads Operating Assumptions |
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Sales & Marketing |
USD 000s |
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4 000.0 |
3 989.7 |
4 019.7 |
4 049.9 |
4 080.3 |
4 111.0 |
4 141.9 |
4 173.0 |
4 204.3 |
4 235.9 |
4 267.8 |
4 299.8 |
4 332.1 |
4 364.7 |
4 397.5 |
4 430.5 |
4 463.8 |
4 497.3 |
4 531.1 |
4 565.1 |
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Sales & Marketing / Revenue |
% |
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9.1% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
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Administration |
USD 000s |
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3 000.0 |
3 022.5 |
3 045.2 |
3 068.0 |
3 091.0 |
3 114.2 |
3 137.6 |
3 161.1 |
3 184.8 |
3 208.7 |
3 232.7 |
3 257.0 |
3 281.4 |
3 306.0 |
3 330.8 |
3 355.8 |
3 381.0 |
3 406.3 |
3 431.9 |
3 457.6 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% |
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3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
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Rent |
USD 000s |
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2 000.0 |
2 020.0 |
2 040.2 |
2 060.6 |
2 081.2 |
2 102.0 |
2 123.0 |
2 144.3 |
2 165.7 |
2 187.4 |
2 209.2 |
2 231.3 |
2 253.7 |
2 276.2 |
2 298.9 |
2 321.9 |
2 345.2 |
2 368.6 |
2 392.3 |
2 416.2 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% |
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4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
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Consulting |
USD 000s |
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1 800.0 |
1 809.0 |
1 818.0 |
1 827.1 |
1 836.3 |
1 845.5 |
1 854.7 |
1 864.0 |
1 873.3 |
1 882.6 |
1 892.1 |
1 901.5 |
1 911.0 |
1 920.6 |
1 930.2 |
1 939.8 |
1 949.5 |
1 959.3 |
1 969.1 |
1 978.9 |
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Annual Growth Rate |
% per annum |
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2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
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Total Central Costs |
USD 000s |
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10 800.0 |
10 841.2 |
10 923.1 |
11 005.7 |
11 088.8 |
11 172.7 |
11 257.2 |
11 342.3 |
11 428.1 |
11 514.6 |
11 601.8 |
11 689.7 |
11 778.2 |
11 867.5 |
11 957.4 |
12 048.1 |
12 139.4 |
12 231.5 |
12 324.3 |
12 417.9 |
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Total EBITDA |
USD 000s |
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9 200.0 |
8 442.5 |
8 505.5 |
8 569.0 |
8 632.8 |
8 697.2 |
8 761.9 |
8 827.2 |
8 892.9 |
8 959.1 |
9 025.7 |
9 092.8 |
9 160.4 |
9 228.4 |
9 297.0 |
9 366.0 |
9 435.5 |
9 505.5 |
9 575.9 |
9 646.9 |
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EBITDA Margin |
% |
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20.9% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
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>> End of Sheet |
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